At present, the growth of raw paper, cardboard market is surging, and as the paper packaging industry chain of the most upstream of the waste paper market is what kind of performance? October 14, the author statistics, sorted out the paper price data within the last week, found that it has been a week! Although the paper price per day increase is not large, but the momentum is rapid, or will continue to maintain a positive situation in the short term.

The price of waste paper has gone up for a week

After the end of the National Day holiday, paper mills around the country gradually resumed production, resulting in increased demand for waste paper. Since October 8, the price of waste paper entered the rising channel, followed by several days of daily rising trend, including nine dragons, liwen, mountain eagle three paper factory bases.

According to the news of "home of waste products", the author sorted out the data of waste paper price from October 8 to October 14, and found that a large number of paper mills raised the purchase price almost every day, with a small increase, the highest being 50 yuan/ton:

On October 8, nearly 30 paper mills in China changed the price of waste paper. Among them, 23 paper mills were raised, up 20-50 yuan/ton. The price reduction area is mainly concentrated in south China, with a decline of 20-30 yuan/ton.

On October 9, nearly 40 paper mills in China changed the price of waste paper. Among them 34 paper mill prices, north China, east China, central China almost all the increase of 20 to 50 yuan/ton. Price reduction areas still exist in south China, some paper mills down 30 yuan/ton.On October 10, 21 paper mills in China adjusted the price of waste paper, and 15 mills increased the price. East China rose 20-50 yuan/ton across the board, south China, north China mixed.On October 11, 15 paper mills in China changed the price of waste paper, 12 chose to increase by 15-50 yuan/ton. East China, central China, northeast, southwest, northwest rose, south China is still mixed.On October 12, nearly 30 paper mills in China raised the price of waste paper, and 22 chose to raise it by 10-50 yuan per ton. East China, north China, northeast China is still rising, and south China began to turn up, up 30 yuan/ton.On October 13, a total of 14 paper mills changed the purchase price of waste paper, and 13 chose to raise the price by 20-50 yuan/ton.On October 14, nearly 10 paper mills in China raised the purchase price of waste paper, and eight raised the purchase price.For waste paper prices follow-up trend, zhuochuang information analyst liu jian believes that the expected yellow scrap paper to the factory price slightly up, the recovery of the market may be delayed, check and treatment of excess waste paper transport slightly affected, in addition, paper mill demand than before the increase. Therefore, comprehensive aspects, the price of short-term paper may be in a positive situation.

Nearly 20 million tons of waste paper may be missing by 2020

Regarding waste paper, guosheng securities released a research report recently, it is estimated that the waste paper gap will be close to 20 million tons in 2020. Considering that the four listed paper companies may import 2.5 million tons of overseas waste pulp capacity next year, the supply of waste paper fiber will also be 17.5 million tons in 2020.According to the report, the amount of waste paper imported in 2017 and 2018 was 25.72 million tons and 17.03 million tons respectively, and the amount of waste paper that could be imported in 2019 is expected to be 11 million tons. In 2017, the volume of imported waste paper did not decline significantly, so it can be considered that the domestic fiber supply in 2017 is still in an adequate state.

Therefore, on the basis of 2017, the import volume of waste paper in 2018 and 2019 decreased by 8.69 million tons and 14.72 million tons respectively compared with 2017, reaching 23.41 million tons, corresponding to a decrease of 21.28 million tons in the quantity of available wrapping paper. Taking other channels into consideration, the actual waste paper fiber reduced by 22.06 million tons. The substitution effect comes from the three aspects of directly imported wrapping paper, waste pulp and national waste use:

From 2018 to 2019, the import of wrapping paper is expected to increase by 2.05 million tons over 2017, corresponding to 2.25 million tons of waste paper.

Waste pulp is expected to increase by 1.36 million tons over 2017, corresponding to about 1.63 million tons of waste paper.

China's waste use is expected to fall by 3.53 million tons from 2017.

In summary, the actual reduction of waste paper fiber is 23.06 million tons = 23.41 million tons of decline of imported waste paper -- 2.25 million tons of substitution of imported wrapping paper -- 1.63 million tons of substitution of imported waste paper pulp + 3.53 million tons of decline of national waste.

It is prudent to assume that the end demand will not increase in 2018-2019, so the reduced waste paper fiber can only be explained by the decline of inventory in the industry chain. From 2018 to 2019, the decreased amount of waste paper fiber corresponds to 21 million tons of finished packaging paper. According to the six inventory links of the whole industrial chain, namely packaging mill waste paper, paper mill waste paper, paper mill raw paper, distribution trader raw paper, secondary factory raw paper, and third-level factory cardboard, the average inventory of each link decreases by 3.5 million tons, and the corresponding inventory days are about 20 days.

Without the inventory buffer, the contradiction between supply and demand of raw materials will emerge in the next six months. Through calculation, the waste paper shortage is estimated to be close to 20 million tons in 2020. Considering that the four major listed waste paper companies may import 2.5 million tons of overseas waste paper pulp production capacity next year, the supply of waste paper fiber will also be about 17.5 million tons in 2020.Guosheng securities visited the relevant links of waste paper industry chain in central, eastern and southern China at the end of August 2019, and believed that the overall waste paper fiber inventory in the industry chain was still limited. From 2020, there will be no buffer of industrial chain inventory destocking, the actual contradiction between supply and demand will appear, and the price rise of waste paper will become a big probability event.

Then, after the gap appears, the biggest short-term impact will be the price of waste paper. The shortage of domestic waste paper fiber supply will lead to the increase of waste price in China, and lead to the increase of finished paper price, which will benefit the enterprises that have a small part of waste quota and have arranged waste pulp and other raw materials overseas in advance. And as prices rise, there will be other channels to fill the void:

Waste paper from remote areas in the west is transported to the central plains;The volume of imported finished paper increased;The price of waste paper rises, and keeps for a long time, which causes the production line of box tile paper to adjust the raw material structure, increase the ratio of wood pulp and fiber, and upgrade the box tile paper packaging products.Medium - and long-term, industry supply and demand structure passive optimization. Because the packaging station does not have payment days and tends to cooperate with large paper mills with stable capital, the shortage of domestic waste paper fiber supply will lead to the priority of domestic waste paper supply to large paper mills. Due to the shortage of raw materials, a large number of small and medium-sized paper mills in China may be in a state of low operating rate for a long time in the future, with a substantial decline in actual output capacity and passive optimization of the industry pattern.